The Market Has Been Kind. The Question Is: What Comes Next?

If you’ve invested over the last 10–15 years, there’s a good chance things worked out reasonably well. Markets recovered quickly from setbacks, innovation continued, and policy, both fiscal and monetary, was generally geared toward stabilizing growth when things got uncomfortable.

Most people are happy with that outcome. I am too.

But the real question isn’t whether the last decade was “good.” It’s whether the next one will look the same, and what you should do if it doesn’t.

One thing that has quietly changed is the cost of servicing government debt. Interest on the national debt has grown into a meaningful line item in the federal budget. Whether you call it 13%, 14%, or something in that neighborhood, the takeaway is simple: interest is competing with everything else the government spends money on.

That doesn’t mean a crisis is imminent. It does mean the system has less flexibility than it did when borrowing costs were close to zero.

Historically, when governments face this kind of math, there are only a few levers they can pull:

· raise revenue

· slow the growth of spending

· grow the economy faster

· allow inflation and financial conditions to quietly do some of the work

Usually, it’s some combination of all four.

You don’t need to predict which lever gets pulled first. It is, however, reasonable to acknowledge that taxes are historically low, and over time the pressure for them to move higher is more likely than lower.

So what does this mean for you?

This isn’t about panic. It’s about positioning.

Many investors spend a lot of energy trying to guess the next winning asset class. A more useful question is: what would make your plan more resilient if the rules slowly change?

One place to start is taxes. Many families have done an excellent job saving, but most of that savings sits in pre‑tax retirement accounts. That works beautifully when tax rates are stable or falling. If taxes rise in the future, however, those accounts concentrate risk in one place: future tax policy.

That’s why more people are thinking about tax diversification, not just investment diversification. Practical questions worth considering include:

· Do you have money spread across taxable, tax‑deferred, and tax‑free accounts?

· Are Roth conversions worth exploring selectively over time?

· Are conversions being coordinated with your CPA to avoid unintentionally pushing income into higher brackets?

This is not about converting everything.

It’s about creating options.

Bonds are another area where old assumptions deserve a second look. For most of my career, short‑term Treasuries and government bonds were the default way to reduce risk. They still have a role. But today it’s fair to ask what “safe” really means if after‑tax returns barely keep up with inflation.

Are you protecting your account balance, or your purchasing power?

Bonds can reduce volatility. They don’t always protect lifestyle.

Diversification still matters, but it’s important to be honest about what it can and cannot do. You’ll hear more discussion around international investing, mid‑cap stocks, dividend strategies, and private credit or private equity. Each of these can help diversify what drives returns. None of them eliminates risk.

Moving away from where “everyone else” is invested can make sense, but only if it fits your plan—not because it sounds different or sophisticated. The goal isn’t to avoid downturns. The goal is to get through them without changing course at the wrong time.

If you own a business, this conversation matters even more.

Business ownership is often the largest asset on your balance sheet and the least liquid. A good plan forces some uncomfortable but necessary questions:

· What if an exit takes longer than expected?

· What if valuation changes?

· What if you never sell?

For most owners, public investments eventually become part of the picture.

Planning for that reality early gives you control.

Waiting removes it.

This is also why the plan has to come before the portfolio. Ten years ago, I didn’t fully believe in financial planning the way I do today. Experience changes perspective.

A real financial plan isn’t a prediction tool. It’s a decision framework. It connects your goals, spending, taxes, estate, insurance, and investments into one place. When those pieces live in isolation, small changes feel overwhelming. When they’re coordinated, you can adjust calmly.

And just as important, a plan helps you stay you, not someone else’s version of what you “should” do.

If this resonates, the next steps don’t need to be dramatic. They just need to be intentional:

· Review where your money lives from a tax perspective, not just an investment one

· Run a multi‑year Roth conversion analysis instead of guessing

· Stress‑test your plan for higher taxes, lower returns, or longer timelines

· Make small portfolio adjustments rather than wholesale changes

· Get clarity before committing to strategies, advisors, or major decisions

Taxes are likely to be one of the biggest variables in your financial life over the next 10 to 20 years, but how they affect you is highly personal. For some families, Roth conversions can make a lot of sense. For others, especially those with high W‑2 income, significant investment income, or concentrated liquidity events, they may not.

The right answer depends on how your income is earned, how consistent it is, what other deductions or credits you have, and how your assets are structured across accounts.

Many advisors try to solve this by forecasting tax rates decades into the future using probabilities and assumptions. In my experience, those forecasts are usually wrong, or at least far less precise than they appear.

Markets change.

Policy changes.

Life changes.

Instead of trying to predict what we can’t control, we focus on what we can control:

· how your income is structured

· where your assets sit from a tax standpoint

· how flexible your plan is if taxes rise

· whether you have options when circumstances change

That may mean doing Roth conversions gradually, or not at all. It may mean leaving assets where they are. It may mean creating tax diversification over time rather than making one large decision today.

There is no single right answer, only a strategy that fits you.

Everyone says to plan. Everyone says to diversify. That’s not wrong, but it’s incomplete.

The real value isn’t the plan itself. It’s what the plan prevents: panic, rushed decisions, poorly timed tax moves, and regret.

We don’t try to predict where taxes, markets, or policy will be in ten years. We assume those guesses will be wrong. Instead, we focus on building flexibility, so you’re not forced into decisions you didn’t want to make.

That might mean Roth conversions, or it might not. It might mean staying invested, or making small, intentional shifts. The point isn’t to follow a formula. It’s to give you options when conditions change.

A good strategy doesn’t depend on being right about the future. It depends on being prepared for multiple versions.

That’s why we start with planning, before portfolios, before products, before opinions. Because when the plan is clear, the decisions get easier, even when the world isn’t.

About Capital Compass and Key

Planning Is the Foundation, Not an Accessory

The biggest difference between short-term investing and long-term wealth building is planning.

We use:

• Financial planning software for cash flow, retirement, and scenario testing
• Tax and estate tools to evaluate Roth conversions, step-up in basis opportunities, and legacy impact
• Private market research to understand where long-term opportunities may emerge

And we’ve learned a simple truth: You cannot make a fiduciary decision by looking at only part of someone’s financial life.

Whether we manage all a family’s assets or only a portion, we must understand:

• Personal goals
• Business holdings
• Real estate
• Tax brackets
• Retirement timelines
• Family dynamics
• Charitable intentions
• Generational goals

That is the only way to make recommendations that are truly in their best interest.

The Hidden Value in Smart Planning

Families often come to us thinking the only decisions that matter are buying or selling investments.

Yet the real long-term gains often come from:

• HSA strategies
• Roth IRA conversions during low-income years
• Optimizing 401(k) vs. after-tax vs. Roth contributions
• Avoiding capital gains through step-up in basis
• Coordinating business value, tax impact, and estate planning

These decisions can create real value in your accounts. And they rarely depend on “beating the market.”

Why We Do This Work

With my background, combined with the expertise of the CFP® and CFA professionals in our group, we’ve built something special: a team more committed to our clients’ success than our own.

Many firms say that. But we live it.

We look for families who value:

• Patience
• Collaboration
• Transparency
• Education
• Generational thinking
• Shared values

These are the relationships that thrive.

We’re not the right fit for everyone and that’s okay. But when there is a fit, the partnership becomes incredibly powerful.

The Purpose of This Blog

If you’re reading this, you may be in the same place I was years ago: believing that investment performance is the ultimate measure of financial success.

Here’s what I’ve learned: Returns matter. But in our opinion, alignment, discipline, tax efficiency, planning, and long-term thinking matter more. Master those, and the returns take care of themselves.

A Free Planning Conversation

We offer a complimentary planning session, not a sales pitch. Just an honest conversation about your goals, concerns, and long-term vision.

If both sides feel a fit, wonderful. If not, we promise it will still be a meaningful and valuable use of your time.

At Infinite Wealth Planning and Capital Compass & Key, our mission is simple:

To help families become stewards of their wealth, not just investors, so they can build something meaningful for generations to come.

Written By:

Mark Anthony Gargano, MBA , CEPA, & CM&AA
Founder | L3 Holdings Inc.

📞 Office: 615-285-8383
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✉️ Email: mark@nwmgadvisors.com
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